The results of the 2024 General Election won’t be known until at least three weeks from now; however, the voting process in most parts of the country – including North Carolina and Guilford County – is already underway.

So, there’s already some hard data regarding the election, and one of those interesting points of information is which party is sending in the most ballots by mail – the earliest way there is to vote.

The Rhino Times requested details regarding the status of the absentee ballots that have been coming into the Guilford County Board of Elections office, and, currently, as of Tuesday, Oct. 15, the office has accepted a total of 2,834 ballots by mail for the November 5 General Election, and, so far, 1,233 of those votes have been from Democratic voters while 724 ballots have been sent in by people registered as Republicans.

Also, in the 2024 election, 658 unaffiliated voters have sent in or returned their votes to the election’s office, while 19 “other” ballots came in as well.

In Guilford County there are 390,868 registered voters as of mid-October 2024 – with 156,313 registered as Democrats, 90,132 registered as Republicans and 140,974 who are registered as unaffiliated.

That means there are about 63 percent more registered Democrats in the county than Republicans, so it makes sense that more Democratic ballots would be cast by mail at any point in time. However, even factoring in the fact that there are about 66,000 more registered Republicans, the Democratic ballots are coming in faster.

Supporters of Democratic Presidential Nominee Kamala Harris might like hearing that – since North Carolina is too close to call and Guilford County is a county with both a rural population and two big cities – but there are lots of reasons to say that, even though this may be a good sign for Democrats, it has to be taken with many grains of salt.

Because there are so many mitigating factors.

 To name just a few: the sample size is small; Republicans tend to like to vote in person more so than Democrats; even though more ballots from Democrats have been cast, it’s not known who those registered Democrats voted for.

Guilford County Board of Elections Director Charlie Collicutt said on Tuesday that it’s also very hard to compare these numbers to those in the 2020 election – in which Donald Trump won the state of North Carolina – because 2020 was the year of COVID, and that pandemic threw everything out of whack, especially when it came to absentee by mail voting.

“This year we sent out about 15,000 absentee ballots by mail; in 2020, it was 70,000,” the elections director said.

“The 2020 election was such an outlier,” Collicutt said.

That year, the year of COVID, even told us less than usual about mail-in voting because Trump was telling his supporters that the system was rigged and that they needed to vote in person in order to help ensure their vote actually counted.

Some have even theorized that that stance by Trump was a major part of the reason he lost to President Jo Biden.  People may plan to hold off their vote until Election Day, but that’s taking a big chance because cars break down, weather events may force people to stay home, there could be a family emergency, and, in some cases, the person who intends to cast a vote might die before Election Day.

A fairer use of a baseline, if one wanted to compare early voting numbers across the years, might be the 2016 Presidential Election.  During that General Election, which was won by Donald Trump, the Guilford County Board of Elections Department accepted 9,669 mail-in ballots and, of those, 3,217 registered Democrats mailed in ballots or used the mail-in process, while 4,000 Republican voters did.

That year, 2,414 unaffiliated voters cast their vote by mail, as did 29 other voters.

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