Chairman of the Guilford County Board of Commissioners Skip Alston said this week that, even though the county has passed bond referendums totaling $2 billion for Guilford County Schools’ capital projects and repairs in the last four years, it’s highly likely that a new round of school bonds will be needed “within the next two or three years.”

Alston made his remarks to the Rhino Times when he was being asked about the disappointed Page High School students, parents and alumni who expected to get a new high school after the passage of the $1.7 billion school bond referendum in 2022 – but instead the old school is continuing to limp along with heating and air system repairs and facing other issues.

The HVAC problems have caused several days of missed school at Page this January.

According to Alston, while a replacement for Page High School won’t get funded with the $2 billion currently being raised by the county, a new Page may be funded in what Alston said is a needed new round of school bonds.

“The school facilities study was done in 2018 and 2019,” Alston said. “After that, inflation hit hard.”

Alston said the increased price of steel and other construction materials after the schools’ needs study was conducted meant that many of the hoped-for projects included in the $2 billion – such as a new Page High School – weren’t possible.

Alston also said that, at the time that the most recent school bond passed – the $1.7 billion bond package two years ago – he and other county commissioners let the public know that wouldn’t be enough to fully fund the schools’ needs.

Page isn’t the only abandoned project on the list that helped sell the $1.7 billion bond referendum to the public. People in other parts of Guilford County also hoped that their local schools would get rebuilt or repaired. The very long list of school needs has had to be trimmed greatly since money doesn’t go as far as it did at the time the list of projects was drawn up.

Guilford County government spends over 40 percent of the county’s budget each year on funding school system operations and maintenance; however – when it comes to major construction and repair projects – Guilford County relies on funds from voter-approved bonds.

What’s happening now is reminiscent of 2008, when county voters approved two very large school bond referendums – and many of the projects called for in that funding round also never got done with that money.  School officials at the time said that shifting circumstances meant it was necessary to take money from some proposed projects and move it to other needs that weren’t on the list presented to voters.  At that time, like now, some voters felt as though they were left holding the bag.

The six other Democrats on the current nine-member Board of Commissioners, with very, very rare exceptions, do what Alston wants; so, a decision by Alston to put a new education bond on the ballot for voter approval in two or three years would mean a virtual certainty that the referendum would make it onto the ballot.

Also, the current board of commissioners, which includes two former Guilford County Board of Education members, a teacher in the school system and a volunteer in the system, is the most pro-Guilford County Schools Board of Commissioners in this century.

Guilford County voters like to back ¬school kids and school bonds; however, adding to the current massive 20-year school bond debt would put quite a strain on the system.

The $2 billion in previously passed school bond referendums is already costing the county much more than predicted due to higher than expected interest rates – which are good for treasury bond buyers but aren’t good for counties that are in the process of raising $2 billion through bonds.

In May of 2022, Guilford County voters approved the historic $1.7 billion school bond referendum on the heels of the $300 million referendum in 2020.

That $1.7 billion bond offering created concern among members of the North Carolina Local Government Commission. The commission is a state financial oversight entity that, among other things, makes sure local governments in North Carolina are able to pay off the debt they accrue.

The Local Government Commission, or LGC, eventually signed off on the giant referendum, however, that $1.7 billion in debt continues to grow in cost for Guilford County taxpayers – and the LGC might take another look at the county piling on more school debt.  The LGC can stop referendums if it sees the debt as too risky for a local government to take on.

The $1.7 billion has to be paid back with interest, of course.  So, it was always a given that the total payback for that loan would come in north of $2 billion.  However, what wasn’t factored in was that, after years of rock-bottom interest rates, those rates would increase dramatically in 2022 and could be “higher for longer.

In recent calculations, the county has been using 5 percent interest rates as an estimated interest payback amount cost.

When the Guilford County Board of Commissioners began pushing for the giant school bond in mid-2021, some rough guesstimates were that the county would be paying perhaps a 2.5 percent interest rate on those bonds – roughly, the rate the county got when it issued part of the previous $300 million school bond that passed in November of 2020.

Using simplified amortization, at 2.5 percent the county would have paid around $462 in interest on the $1.7 billion, while, at 4.5 percent, the interest payment total comes to $881 million, an extra $419 million on interest alone.