Just one month ago, the two main presidential candidates – Donald Trump and Joe Biden – didn’t really have much interest in the state of North Carolina because there wasn’t any reason to. By all indications, Trump had the state wrapped up with a bow on it, and there was little worry inside the Republican camp that the state would pose a problem.

Likewise, there was little to no hope among the Democrats that, by some miracle, Biden could win the state and its 16 Electoral Votes.

Cut to: One month later. Biden is no longer the Democratic candidate; presidential campaign advertising money is pouring into the state from both parties; and, within the span of three days, both Trump and new presidential candidate Kamala Harris held major campaign events in the state.

 Harris made an appearance at Wake County Community College in Raleigh, while two days earlier Trump held a rally in Asheville. And Trump even has plans to return to Asheboro this week.

As of Sunday, August 18, the respected polling website 538 listed the race for the state of North Carolina just about as close as it could be. Using the methodology of averaging polls for each candidate in the 2024 presidential polls, “accounting for each poll’s recency, sample size, methodology and house effects,” led the election polling experts to conclude that the race between Harris and Trump was currently neck and neck.

Trump’s lead was one-third of a percentage point. According to the site, ignoring the margin of error, Trump would be favored to win the state with 45.5 percent of the vote, while Harris is supported by 45.2 percent of those polled. (Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is pulling in 4.1 percent of the vote in North Carolina.)

A YouGov Blue poll from a week ago had the two candidates dead even at 46 percent each in North Carolina, while the most recent New York Times Siena College poll has Harris up by 2, with Trump at 46 percent and Harris at 48 percent.

On Sunday, July 21, when Biden dropped out of the race, most polls had Biden 6 or more points behind Trump in North Carolina and there was no realistic expectation the state would be in play in November.

This week, several national newspapers ran stories on the presidential race in North Carolina and said that it could play a major role in a path to victory for Harris if she can grab the state that historically almost always goes for the Republican presidential candidate.

Another concerning factor for Trump and his supporters is that the Democratic National Convention is being held this week and it’s usually the case that each party –  and their presidential candidates – get a slight bump in the polls following their conventions.

Another factor that could help Harris is that she has friends in very high places in the state. NC Governor Roy Cooper, who was considered one of the top contenders to become Harris’ vice-presidential running mate, will no doubt use his political machine to back Harris in a big way.

Locally, the most powerful Democratic political leader in Guilford County has promised he is going to do everything he can to help Harris get elected. Chairman of the Guilford County Board of Commissioners Skip Alston has political connections across the state and he and Harris have become friends in recent years. That connection could especially help boost the black vote in the state.

There has even been some wild speculation that, if Harris does win, Alston could end up with a job in the administration. While that would no doubt delight Republicans in the area who would like to see Alston out of Guilford County government, Alston assured the Rhino Times that there had been no discussions of that sort.

Other “Sunbelt” states – like Georgia and Arizona, that were once considered solid red states – have also become in play; so, this phenomenon isn’t limited to the Tar Heel state.

Of course, while there’s a lot of positivity in the Harris camp right now – and the betting markets have her favored to win the presidency – the election is still a long way off and there are a lot of minefields in her path that could turn the tables on her quickly.

For instance, so far Harris has avoided a challenging sit-down long-form interview or a press conference where she’s asked tough questions by the media.

And then there’s the debate on Tuesday, Sept. 10 on ABC.

While no one expects Harris to completely implode like Biden did in his debate with Trump, there is a chance that she could do poorly and lose some support. Also, between now and the election, Republicans are going to run a never-ending barrage of attack ads on television, radio and social media attempting to label Harris as way too liberal to be president.

Trump seems to be putting a lot of emphasis on the September 10 debate and appears to think it will be a key in the downfall of Harris. He has repeatedly said that she is “dumb as a rock” and he has also said he believes that will become patently obvious on September 10.

“We’ll see how smart she is in the debate,” Trump said this week.

Trump said that anyone can read a speech off a teleprompter and not take questions from the media, but it’s something else to be asked tough questions in front of millions of viewers on live TV.

Republicans also point to the presidential voting history of the state. Voters in North Carolina almost always vote majority Republican in the presidential races.  The state has voted Republican in almost every presidential election since 1968. The website 270towin states that the “initial shift was largely in response to white conservative voter uneasiness with the civil rights legislation passed in the mid-1960s, which was effectively exploited by the Republicans ‘southern strategy.’”

  Trump won North Carolina in 2016, and 2020, Trump won the state by 3.6 percent over Hillary Clinton in 2016 and by 1.3 percent over Joe Biden in 2020.

In 2012, Mitt Romney beat Obama by about 2 percent in North Carolina.

One has to go back to 2008 to find a Democratic presidential victory for the state. That was when Obama’s hope and change message put him over the top –though a lot of people forget how narrow that victory was even in the wake of the large nationwide margin for Obama.

 In North Carolina, Obama beat John McCain by about 14,000 votes out of 4.3 million cast, only about one-third of a percentage point.

Before that, Republicans won the state big in 2004 and 2000, and, from 1980 to 2000, North Carolinians voted Republican in the presidential race every time.

The effect of the rarity of Obama’s North Carolina victory in the state was profound on many die-hard democrats in the state.

The Rhino Times was at the Greensboro Coliseum in 2008 watching the election returns come in that night and there were a slew of national media outlets there as well who were closely watching the senate races.  While it was already known relatively early in the night that Obama would win the presidency, it was only later in the evening that the state of North Carolina was called for Obama. When that happened, the Democrats in the audience let out a roar of glee, which no doubt was the result of years of the state handing its electoral votes to the Republican presidential candidates.  Some Democrats were even teary-eyed at the announcement that Obama had won the state.

Some analysts point out that Trump won North Carolina by less of a margin in 2020 than he did in 2016 and that the state has had a lot of college students coming in in recent years, which is likely to favor Democratic candidates.

Also, North Carolina is not really a state that falls in the “extreme MAGA” category, as is evidenced by the fact that state voters elected a Democratic governor, and Trump-backed Gubernatorial candidate Mark Robinson is running behind in the polls.